564
FXUS61 KILN 252315
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH THE SUBTLE FLATTENING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ALLOWING
FOR A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW TO EVOLVE INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA IS ALREADY INCREASING
IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS OCCURRING AMIDST A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, THAT, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW,
WILL ALLOW FOR SUBTLE INCREASES IN COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION/SEVERE
POTENTIAL THAN WAS THE CASE LOCALLY ON TUESDAY. DO THINK THAT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL (DUE TO
DCAPE ~1000 J/KG) WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. STILL, THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.
DO THINK THAT THE MRGL SWODY1 FROM SPC IS WELL-PLACED AND WELL-
WARRANTED GIVEN THE SETUP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE FROM EC IN THROUGH WC/CENTRAL OH THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER FLOW WILL EVOLVE, ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT AN OUTFLOW MAY EXPAND THROUGH MOST
OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO EARLY EVENING, SETTING UP NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR
WHERE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNSET. THIS EXPANDING OUTFLOW/STABLE AIR SHOULD SHUNT THE STORM
ACTIVITY PROGRESSIVELY TO THE SE WITH TIME, YIELDING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO MID EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100F. TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED BY EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE AND
OUTFLOWS INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON, SO THE NEAR-100F HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS THIS OCCURS.
THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES DUE TO OUTFLOWS/GUST FRONTS
PROGRESSIVELY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AMIDST MUGGY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
MORE OF THE SAME IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED LOCALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY, WITH WEAK SHEAR BUT A FAVORABLE THERMO
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING OUTFLOW-DRIVEN STORM EVOLUTION WITH DOWNBURST-
DRIVEN GUSTY TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT ON THURSDAY IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR REGION TODAY. THIS APPLIES TO THE
HEAT POTENTIAL AS WELL, EVEN WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE FLATTENING
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL/PROBABILITY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH 100F
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOT /QUITE/ AS HIGH/WIDESPREAD AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE MON/TUE/WED, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO APPROACH 100F IN A FEW SPOTS ON BOTH DAYS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
THE EXTENDED NATURE OF THIS HEAT (WITH LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHTTIME AS
LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AMIDST MUGGY CONDITIONS),
PROMPTED THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. IT IS WELL-RECOGNIZED THAT THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS THAT
DON'T REACH A HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD OF 100F ON THU/FRI, BUT WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH SOME LOWER 100S STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THE
CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF HEAT AND THE LACK OF ANY /REAL/ RELIEF ON THE
DOORSTEP, FELT THAT IT WAS BEST TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AND CONTINUE
MESSAGING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS HEAT/HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST WAS INITIALIZED USING THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
HEIGHTS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A LOWERING UNTIL MON NIGHT/TUE WHEN AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MON NIGHT, WITH ONLY A MODERATE
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES AFTERWARD.
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME ARE STRONGLY CORRELATED TO THE
NATURAL DIURNAL, WITH CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND TOPPING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST POPS OF
THE FORECAST OCCUR ON SAT AND AGAIN MON/MON EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WHILE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AROUND THE
AREA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT AROUND
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR
LUK/ILN WHERE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TODAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING EXPECTATIONS AT EACH SITE, PROB30S WERE USED TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-7 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF EACH DAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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