094
FXUS61 KILN 260542
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS WE START TO LOSE THE DIURNAL COMPONENT HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD LOWER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. STILL THOUGH, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT BEING QUITE AS WARM WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION HEADING INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO DRIER AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
80S.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL THEREFORE
ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WE
DESTABILIZE HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH
A SEVERAL HOUR PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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