020
FXUS61 KILN 261706
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
106 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTBY, WITH SBCAPE ON ORDER OF 3500+ J/KG, HAS
DEVELOPED WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CI TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, ALBEIT VERY
DISORGANIZED, FASHION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW
REMAINS INCREDIBLY WEAK, SO STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
CAVEAT TO THAT, HOWEVER, IS THAT STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE, LENDS ITSELF TO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE
RIPENING THERMO/DCAPE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE ONE THING WE MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH OF TODAY IS STRONG OUTFLOW/GUST
FRONTS EMANATING IN ALL DIRECTIONS QUITE LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY. THIS
HAD A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE ENVIRONMENT INTO MID EVENING ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWED FOR A QUICKER "DOWNTURN" IN
COVERAGE THAN IS EXPECTED TODAY. DO THINK THAT, WITH THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF ANY PRONOUNCED OUTFLOWS EXPANDING ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA, ACTIVITY WILL PERCOLATE UNTIL SUNSET.
MANY SPOTS MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS, PARTICULARLY
AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS,
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCALES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 100F.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED PULSY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER, YIELDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN EVEN MORE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS NOT QUITE AS ANAMOLOUSLY-HIGH AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. EVEN WITH THIS, HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS) WILL
STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, LEADING TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. AS SUCH, WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES NEAR/E OF I-71 WHERE THE BEST INSTBY SHOULD
DEVELOP. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY BE /SLIGHTLY/ LESS CONDUCIVE TO
GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, BUT THE OVERALL HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY. ANY SLOW-MOVING OR
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT AN ISOLATED FLOOD
POTENTIAL, TOO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT MAINTAINS INCREASED HEIGHTS ~590DM AT
THIS LEVEL, THEN BEGINS A DROP SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK S/W
TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES CWA MON NIGHT AND NW FLOW ALOFT
TAKES ITS PLACE. GFS NEVER REALLY DROPS MUCH, MAINTAINING A 30DM
INCREASE OVER THE ECMWF, AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL.
AHEAD OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST,
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURS PER CANADIAN AND GFS. EURO
AT THIS TIME CONTINUES A COOL NW FLOW AND LOWER HEIGHTS. RIDGE
SHOULD BE OVER LOCAL AREA LATER ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A WEAK FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY, WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXISTS ON SUN, DECREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS PRECIP THREAT LOOKS
TO BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE NBM AND SHOULD BE DRY IN THE NORTH WITH
LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH PER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND NEUTRAL/WEAK
HEIGHT INCREASES. MON/MON NIGHT STAND A GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A TRAILING SURFACE
FROPA. ONCE AGAIN, NBM POPS ON TUESDAY ARE LIKELY NOISE FROM THE
BLENDED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IT WILL DEPEND ON IF FRONT IS STILL IN THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT
FCST SHOULD BE TRIMMED BY 20-30% ON TUES AND CONTINUED DRY THROUGH
THURS.
TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 80S ON SAT AND HOVER NEAR 90 SUN/MON,
DROPPING TO THE MID 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST. LOWS NEAR 70
WILL DROP TO THE MID 60S TUES NIGHT, LINGERING THERE FOR REST OF
FCST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED BUT DISORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE COVERED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, SOME
ABRUPT CHANGES IN VSBYS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN SHOULD ANY ONE OF THE SITES BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME PATCHY BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT ONE
OF THE SITES. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK, FAVORED IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCALES, INCLUDING KLUK.
MORE OF THE SAME IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN IS THE CASE TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SW SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...KC
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