239
FXUS61 KILN 270505
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES STARTING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY, THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S, THE HEAT
INDEX WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION PERHAPS REACHING
OUR WEST-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IN THIS AREA BEFORE IT WEAKENS AS IT REACHES CENTRAL OHIO.
THE COLD FRONT DIPS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. THUS, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT; MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE MOST INSTABILITY BEING FOUND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST OF I-71. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING
AND SOME WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE NO HEADLINES OR HEAT MENTION IN THE
HWO. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS INT HE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
CONTINUED PATTERN OF AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY, AFTER A
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE THAT
SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY EVENING. AREAWIDE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CAA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. CAA CU ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NBM
HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NBM LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GUIDANCE OFFERS A FOCUS FOR RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. SO FAR, HAVE OBSERVED SOME DECREASE IN
VISIBILITY AT VTA. HOWEVER, WITH THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LATE-DAY
CONVECTION THIS PAST DAY, HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG FOR
MOST OF THE SITES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A BIT LESS COVERAGE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY PER HIGH-RES MODELS. AT DAY, THERE MAY BE A DECAYING
BROKEN LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS AS A PROB30 FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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