933
FXUS61 KILN 271400
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES STARTING ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD HAVE SOME MOVEMENT TO
THEM WHERE THEY DON'T PARK THEMSELVES OVER ANY ONE PARTICULAR PLACE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. PWAT VALUES REMAIN CONSTANT OVER
THE REGION WITH 1.83" AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND 00Z LAST NIGHT, A
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT DECREASE FROM YESTERDAY'S 12Z READING OF
1.89". STEERING H5 WINDS OVER THE REGION WERE 5KT OR LESS, LEADING TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT. TODAY THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 20KT IN THE NORTH,
15KT IN THE SOUTH. HARDLY WORTH THE MENTION, BUT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
THE SAME DIRECTION OF H8 WINDS THAT WILL EXHIBIT 15-20KT IN THE
NORTH, 10-15KT IN THE SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD EXHIBIT AT LEAST SOME
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NE TO WHERE THE RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+/HR DON'T
PARK FOR AN HOUR OVER ANY LOCATION. PREV DISCUSSION:
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY, THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S, THE HEAT
INDEX WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION PERHAPS REACHING
OUR WEST-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IN THIS AREA BEFORE IT WEAKENS AS IT REACHES CENTRAL OHIO.
THE COLD FRONT DIPS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. THUS, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT; MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE MOST INSTABILITY BEING FOUND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST OF I-71. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING
AND SOME WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE NO HEADLINES OR HEAT MENTION IN THE
HWO. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS INT HE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
CONTINUED PATTERN OF AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY, AFTER A
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE THAT
SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY EVENING. AREAWIDE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CAA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. CAA CU ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NBM
HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NBM LIMITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE WILL LIKELY PEAK ACROSS DAY/CVG/LUK EARLY, THEN SHIFT EAST TO
ILN/CMH/LCK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEXT, A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS INDIANA AND
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST... PERHAPS REACHING DAY THIS EVENING, THEN
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
DURING THE CVG EXTENDED TAF, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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