114
FXUS61 KILN 280006
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BEGINNING
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED WITH FUTURE HEAT INDICIES EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 100 DEGREES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, VALUES COULD STILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS.
THE BULK OF THE DOWNPOUR AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A LINGERING OUTFLOW MOVING
OUT OF INDIANA HAS RECENTLY SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS OUTFLOW STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST, CLEAR INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL AID LINGERING DOWNPOURS
AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA,
NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE TRI-
STATE. EVENTUALLY, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY FRONT DIPS
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM INITIALIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
THROUGH SAT WERE SET AT A MINIMUM OF 20% AS THERE WERE A LOT OF AREAS
NBM WAS SHOWING WITHOUT ANY RAIN CHANCES. DON'T KNOW HOW IT COULD DO
THIS GIVEN PRIMARILY AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THIS TIME AT 50% AS WELL, WHICH TRIMMED DOWN A LITTLE
BIT OF INITIALIZATION POPS THAT WERE LIKELY. CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
TIME SHOULD BE SCATTERED, EVEN AS A WEAKENING FRONT ENTERS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG/NEAR BOUNDARY,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRE-FRONTAL SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE MOST INSTABILITY BEING FOUND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST OF I-71. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP
TOMORROW WILL BE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOUND ALONG/S OF THE
OHIO RIVER. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING AND
SOME WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINIMAL COMPARED TO MONDAY OR SOME OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ON MONDAY, PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. STORM
CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PWATS DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOOD
CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS ON MONDAY IS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES WHICH MAY HELP STORMS MOVE AT AROUND 15-20 MPH. QUICKER
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT MOST FLOOD CONCERNS TO AREAS WHERE
TRAINING/REPEATED ROUNDS OCCUR.
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEREBY
LIMITING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RAIN TO BE ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE. DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES MAY REDEVELOP AROUND FRIDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE MOST PART, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS AREA
TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AN AREA OF LINGERING ENERGY
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH INDIANA AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT
OF KENTUCKY COULD LEAD SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION (LUK/CVG). FOR NOW, KEPT PROB30 MENTION
LIMITED TO SHRA. FOR DAY, THIS OUTFLOW WILL SHORTLY CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNPOURS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TOMORROW FOR ALL SITES. A SIMILAR
APPROACH WAS TAKEN, WITH PROB30 HIGHLIGHTING THE PERIOD OF ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, FOCUSED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...FRANKS/MCGINNIS
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