692
FXUS61 KILN 281333
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
933 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BEGINNING TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WEAKENING FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
AND WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT IN THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AMIDST AMPLE INSTBY (SBCAPE ~2500 J/KG) BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS, LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED,
ASIDE FROM A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS. THIS BEING SAID, THE STEERING-LAYER
FLOW IS /SLIGHTLY/ STRONGER TODAY, SO ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS SHOULD
BE MOVING ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING. THIS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, BUT DO THINK FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE. A FAVORABLE LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURST GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT WHILE THE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE
FRONT BECOME WEAK. THIS SETS UP A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WHAT MAKES THIS MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE FOG IS ABLE TO EXPAND OUTSIDE THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FOR NOW, HAVE LIMITED FOG EXPRESSION IN THE GRIDS...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCLUSION WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS IS
NOTED VIA A WIND SHIFT AT 850MB ON MOST OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. BEST
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE TRISTATE AND IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE NO HEADLINES OR HEAT MENTION IN THE
HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S EXCEPT FOR A FEW
90S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAA CU ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL
SIGNALS FOR WEAK SYSTEMS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY AND STALL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THESE
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING DUE TO AN APPARENT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT TONIGHT, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE THREAT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE. HAVE NOTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN THE TAFS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, FOCUSED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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