010
FXUS61 KILN 281922
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
322 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A WEAKENING FRONT DRAPED FROM ENE TO WSW NEAR I-70 CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE SE FARTHER INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY WASH
OUT IN THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO OUR SW COMING INTO N KY,
ARE PROVIDING SEVERAL AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AMIDST AMPLE INSTBY (SBCAPE ~3000 J/KG).
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS, LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW STILL
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED, ASIDE
FROM A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS FROM TIME-TO- TIME. THIS BEING SAID, THE
STEERING-LAYER FLOW IS /SLIGHTLY/ STRONGER TODAY THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING. THIS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, BUT DO THINK FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE. A FAVORABLE LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT DOWNBURST GUSTY TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS, THE COVERAGE OF WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ON
PAR WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS THREAT WANES TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET AS STORMS
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE.
WHERE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED, PEAK TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S NEAR/S OF I-70
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A DRYING TREND IS FAVORED ONCE AGAIN PAST SUNSET, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A
FEW ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY S OF I-70.
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE AND STAGNANT FLOW EVOLVING,
DO THINK THAT FOG COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE IN RECENT NIGHTS AND NOT JUST CONFINED TO AREA RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR LOCALES THAT RECEIVE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY AND AREAS OF
FOG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE KY THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE RINSE-AND-REPEAT PATTERN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AMIDST VERY WEAK
LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS GOING TO
BE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK/SUBTLE MCV BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO SRN IN.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THE LL
FLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ARC STRETCHING FROM SW IN THROUGH SOUTHERN
OH, PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION, INITIALLY IN/NEAR THE TRI-STATE. THE THERMO ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST GUSTY TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE >=1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY,
THE STEERING-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE EVEN WEAKER ON SUNDAY, LENDING
ITSELF TO VERY SLOW AND CHAOTIC STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTIONS, SUGGESTING
THE HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
SUNDAY THAN WILL BE THE CASE TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN SW PARTS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOW AND ERRATIC
STORMS, WHICH MAY SIT/BACK BUILD OVER A SINGLE LOCATION, LENGTHENING
THE POTENTIAL TIME OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WILL ADD MENTION IN THE
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ISO
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-75.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES LEADING TO
PWATS OF 2+ INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW SINCE SHEAR IS WEAK AND
DCAPE WILL NOT BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER,
TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY IN ANY STORMS. AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK EXISTS SINCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST WHICH ALLOWS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IS GOING TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FOCUSING NEAR THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCT/RANDOM IN NATURE, SO IMPACTS AT A SPECIFIC TERMINAL ARE FAR FROM
CERTAIN. THIS BEING SAID, ANY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BRING WITH IT
SUDDEN/ABRUPT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRASTIC/QUICK CHANGES IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. THIS POTENTIAL AT A
SPECIFIC SITE WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
DRIER/CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN EVOLVE OVERNIGHT, WITH A SIGNAL
FOR SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT BEING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE.
THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT/LL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT IN THE AREA, WITH
AMPLE LL MOISTURE AND WEAKENING/STAGNANT SFC FLOW. AS SUCH, HAVE
CONTINUED SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY 09Z,
WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR LOCALES THAT RECEIVE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY AND ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT SUFFICIENTLY
TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN VFR CU AND ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
ON TAP TOWARD 18Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, FOCUSED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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