343
FXUS61 KILN 290416
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1216 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ON MONDAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
WELL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE AND SHOULD BE OVER
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY TO NORTH OF DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THAT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE AREA, IT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE RINSE-AND-REPEAT PATTERN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AMIDST VERY WEAK
LL/DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS GOING TO
BE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK/SUBTLE MCV BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO SRN IN.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THE LL
FLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ARC STRETCHING FROM SW IN THROUGH SOUTHERN
OH, PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION, INITIALLY IN/NEAR THE TRI-STATE. THE THERMO ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST GUSTY TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH DCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE >=1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY,
THE STEERING-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE EVEN WEAKER ON SUNDAY, LENDING
ITSELF TO VERY SLOW AND CHAOTIC STORM MOTIONS/EVOLUTIONS, SUGGESTING
THE HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
SUNDAY THAN WILL BE THE CASE TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN SW PARTS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOW AND ERRATIC
STORMS, WHICH MAY SIT/BACK BUILD OVER A SINGLE LOCATION, LENGTHENING
THE POTENTIAL TIME OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WILL ADD MENTION IN THE
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ISO
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-75.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES LEADING TO
PWATS OF 2+ INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW SINCE SHEAR IS WEAK AND
DCAPE WILL NOT BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER,
TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY IN ANY STORMS. AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK EXISTS SINCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST WHICH ALLOWS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KILN/KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, WITH FOG A LITTLE LESS LIKELY AT KCVG, AND SOME
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLUK. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCES APPEAR UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW, BUT
SOME IFR TO LIFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. KDAY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13Z. ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, AS INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP AT EACH TAF SITE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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