957
FXUS61 KILN 291708
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED AGAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RETURN OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE STUBBORN STRATUS LAYER THAT HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE REGION S
OF I-70 HAS SCATTERED OUT A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE. THE PRESENCE OF THIS STRATUS HAS INHIBITED/SLOWED
MORE ROBUST SFC HEATING THUS FAR, WHICH COULD CAUSE A SLIGHT DELAY
IN CI, AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS INSTBY TO BE REALIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST CONVECTION THAT MAY NOT BE
/QUITE/ AS INTENSE AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS BEING SAID, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA IS ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY NEAR THE
OH RVR TO S OF I-70, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY GOING TO BE FOCUSED
NEAR/S OF I-70 WHERE THE BEST INSTBY WILL RESIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
AGAIN, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
AND WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE BL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED,
WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS
THAT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN.
THE MAIN THREATS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE LATTER BEING A BIGGER CONCERN
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THESE THREATS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED, BUT COULD BE QUITE IMPACTFUL ON A VERY LOCALIZED
SCALE. FOR THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT, FAVORABLE DCAPE VALUES WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS. FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, PWS OF ~2 INCHES
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAIN -- WITH
SOME STORMS BACKBUILDING OR NOT MOVING MUCH FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME. TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES OF OVER 1" IN 15 MINUTES, WITH ISOLATED
DAILY TOTALS NEAR 2" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL,
STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE RATHER POOR, WITH ONLY ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DOWNTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE SEVERAL HOURS PAST SUNSET, RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR EC/SE
IN THROUGH THE TRI-STATE INTO N KY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/REMNANT MCV
APPROACHES FROM THE W TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL CREATE A LOCALIZED
AREA OF ENHANCED LL CONVERGENCE WITH H8 FLOW INCREASING, SUPPORTING
THE BLOSSOMING/MAINTENANCE OF SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
BY 09Z IN PARTS OF EC/SE IN THROUGH THE TRI-STATE INTO N-CNTRL KY.
COVERAGE COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THESE LOCALES BY THE AM
COMMUTE, WITH CONTINUED HIGH PWS SUPPORTING TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES
AND AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WSW TO
ENE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE A WARM/MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM EC/SE IN THROUGH
THE TRI-STATE INTO N KY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
ENE, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR A SLOW WEAKENING INTO LATE MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON A MORE WIDESPREAD SCALE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNALLY-ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA.
THE OVERALL SETUP ON MONDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY FROM A THERMODYNAMIC
PERSPECTIVE -- THE SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE SIMILAR, WITH PWS APPROACHING
2 INCHES, AND UNCAPPED SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IS TWO-FOLD. FOR ONE, THERE
WILL BE A MORE WELL-DEFINED SOURCE OF FORCING, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT. FOR TWO, THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER,
WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE NOT A PARTICULARLY HIGH
VALUE, IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION (AS WELL
AS GREATER COVERAGE), AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF A GREATER CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE MARKEDLY QUICKER THAN WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY
AND THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SO, WHILE THE THREATS EXPECTED FROM STORMS
ON MONDAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE GREATER -- WITH A LITTLE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE SPATIAL EXPANSE OF THIS POTENTIAL IS
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
FACT, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY FROM WC OH THROUGH EC IN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED AND
UNSTABLE.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE -- TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AMIDST HUMID/STORMY CONDITIONS. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE ILN FA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. SINCE THERE IS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
TIMING OF FROPA, THERE ARE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN DRY IF FRONTAL PASSAGE ENDS UP OCCURRING
EARLIER TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRINGING DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
LOW END SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING MORE HEAT AND
MOISTURE TO RETURN. THESE LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND SINCE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LIFR/IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT/SCATTER, WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING VFR AREA-WIDE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SCT/BKN VFR CU, WITH SOME CIRRUS AS WELL, WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z AREA-WIDE.
ONCE AGAIN, SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AS
INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP AT EACH TAF SITE. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT SRN
SITES OF KCVG/KLUK/KILN WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF CHANGES IN VSBYS, WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AFTER THAT, GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME
MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY AT LOCALES WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS
AND AT RIVER VALLEY KLUK.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA THAT APPROACH
KCVG/KLUK TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEYOND BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS
WITH EASTWARD EXTEND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BEING SAID, DO
THINK THERE WILL BE ISO/SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ABOUT THE LOCAL
AREA PRIOR TO 18Z WITH THE INCREASED FORCING/LIFT OVERSPREADING FROM
THE W.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page