139
FXUS61 KILN 051037
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN
DISSIPATE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THIS STRETCH OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
THE TAIL END OF THAT NOT REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE MID LEVEL HIGH
BIFURCATING. WEAK ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE PIECE OF THE HIGH THAT
ENDS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM THE TRI-STATE INTO THE MIAMI VALLY. HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT THIS REGION HAS THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN (CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT). WHILE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED BY THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD
GET INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN NBM POPS, HIGHER RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY IS A BIT LOWER THERE WITH MANY MODEL RUNS
BEING JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTER HAVING LOWS AROUND 70 TONIGHT, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST A
BIT BELOW PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
FORECAST STILL HAS HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OHIO, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS IN PLACE TO START THE WEEKEND GIVES WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE IN THE 80S AND FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN DISSIPATE TOWARDS 00Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ046-055-056-065-
070-071-077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...
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