650
FXUS61 KILN 061023
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GET SUPPRESSED EASTWARD AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS
ALREADY OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION, PARTICULARLY IN
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY, TO EAST/NORTHEAST OF CINCINNATI. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO A FORECAST AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THUS
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY. ALSO, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE COULD MAKE INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY THE END OF
THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST A BIT BELOW PERSISTENCE.
BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SO HEAT INDICES MAY PUSH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDICES AT LEAST 95
ARE 60 PERCENT OR HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AND FURTHER EAST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT INTO THE
COLUMBUS METRO. BUT PROBABILITIES OF REACHING A HEAT INDEX OF 100 ARE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AREA WIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY, WITH THE TAIL END LAYING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MEANS THAT THE GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT HIGH ON MONDAY WILL
BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. HREF PROBABILITY OF A HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 95
IS MORE THAN 25 PERCENT ONLY IN THOSE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE WORK WEEK
THANKS TO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A SERIES OF POTENTIAL
LOWS/FRONTS AROUND THE AREA. THE EXACT DETAILS OF SHOWER/STORM TIMING
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN SINCE FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK ALONG WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCES PEAK EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING BEFORE FADING OFF
EACH EVENING. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS ARE NEAR
70.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT KLUK. SOME MID CLOUDS ABOUT THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WILL SETTLE INTO A SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CUMULUS DECK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHERN
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT THE CHANCE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN. THE CUMULUS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z, BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...
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