048
FXUS61 KILN 070119
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS TILL BRING A RENEWED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO MIDWEEK, KEEPING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS DRY AS OF SUNSET, BUT SOME DECAYING
CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA UPSTREAM IN IN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO FAR WRN PARTS OF THE ILN, SPECIFICALLY WC OH THROUGH EC/SE IN,
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED (AND MAINLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE) AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WE MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAR/DEVOID OF ACTIVITY
UNTIL VERY LATE AS SOME ELEVATED INSTBY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW-END COVERAGE IS
FAVORED TO STAY MAINLY NEAR/W OF I-75, ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A STRAY
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
A SEASONABLY WARM/MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE
LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, EXPECTING DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.9, OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JUNE. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT LESS THAN 15 KTS WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. AS WITH THE SHEAR, OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS
REMAIN WEAK, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DOWNDRAFT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THE GREATER CONCERN WILL
BE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.
EXPECT DIMINISHED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL A
SLIGHT CHANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AT PEAK HEATING, NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING 100, THOUGH WILL STILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
WITH NEAR 90 TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL PLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS (NORTHERN KENTUCKY & SOUTHERN OHIO) OF
THE AREA. THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DOWNPOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE
(PWATS >1.8") CONTENT ACROSS THE SOUTH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE MORE RICH MOISTURE
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LINGERING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT,
HOWEVER, THE AREA WILL NOT SEE DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, DRIVING DOWNPOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE MORE RICH MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A FASTER RETURN, ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO WHILE WPC
CURRENTLY DOESN'T HAVE A MENTION FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
DAY 4 OUTLOOK (WED) FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON HOW THE PATTERN TRENDS.
FOR THURSDAY, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE GEFS/ECMWF ENS DIVERGE ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. SINCE THE ECMWF ENS ARE WEAKER WITH THE
TROUGH, THE DRYNESS ON WEDNESDAY LEADS TO A WETTER SOLUTION ON
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS. OVERALL, THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS
THE SAME AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE DETAILS ON LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RISKS LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY GETS CLOSER.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK SYSTEM THAT LINGERS IN THE AREA
FRIDAY, THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY. THIS WOULD PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE
STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED. SOME DAYS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW/SCT VFR CU WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH SOME MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR WRN
SITES OF KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, WITH
A VERY SPOTTY SHRA POSSIBLE AT WRN SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
DECAYING STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE W WORKS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE EXPECTATION FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSRA TO DEVELOP PAST 15Z, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FAVORED
NEAR/E OF I-71. THIS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
-- APPROXIMATELY 16Z-22Z BEFORE COVERAGE WANES TOWARD 00Z TUESDAY. OF
COURSE, BRIEF/SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY, BUT THIS WILL
BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
SOME BR/MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT KLUK IN THE SEVERAL
HOURS PRIOR/NEAR DAYBREAK, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OTHERWISE.
CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUICK BY 15Z, WITH STORM INITIATION NOT FAR
AFTERWARDS. LIGHT SW WINDS AT 5KTS OR LESS WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS PAST 15Z ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE WNW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK FRONT
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS OR BR/FG ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...KC/JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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