849
FXUS61 KILN 070523
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING POSSIBLE. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO
MIDWEEK, KEEPING PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, ONLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-75 PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE
TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR THE DAYTIME, PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES NOON. THESE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (90TH+ PERCENTILE) COMBINED WITH INCREASING
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CELLS (2+ INCHES PER HOUR). SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED FLOODING RISK INTO THE EVENING IN THE
HEAVIER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS MARGINAL,
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES, FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN MOISTURE
DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BEING POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-71 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM, WEAK WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL HAVE MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IT. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, LEFT OVER BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING BROAD, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
EXPECT TO HAVE PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY MORE FOCUSED FORCING, BUT THAT IS
FAR FROM CLEAR AT THIS POINT. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER INDICATE THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY, IN PROXIMITY TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY, WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEYOND THAT, THERE
IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING BEYOND NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD, BUT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDS IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 1600Z AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0600Z.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS OR BR/FG ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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