845
FXUS61 KILN 071349
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
949 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING POSSIBLE. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO
MIDWEEK, KEEPING PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE ILN CWA REMAINS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NEAR INDIANAPOLIS IN TO
NEAR SANDUSKY OH. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE IN PLACE -- INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA (MERCER COUNTY OH). AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S -- EN ROUTE TO
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 (IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA).
THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING RECORDED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.65
INCHES. THE GREATER PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS JUST UPSTREAM, JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PLUME WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA NEAR
PEAK HEATING -- PROVIDING A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION.
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED, AND THE OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING FOR HAZARDS TODAY HAS NOT CHANGED -- A RISK OF
ISOLATED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES (ESPECIALLY WITH
TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING CELLS) ALONG WITH A LOW-END THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. TO NOTE, THE 13Z SPC D1
UPDATE INCLUDED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, ONLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-75 PRIOR TO SUNRISE DUE
TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR THE DAYTIME, PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES NOON. THESE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (90TH+ PERCENTILE) COMBINED WITH INCREASING
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CELLS (2+ INCHES PER HOUR). SLOWER CELL
MOVEMENT SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED FLOODING RISK INTO THE EVENING IN THE
HEAVIER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS MARGINAL,
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES, FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN CAPPED
IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN MOISTURE
DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BEING POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-71 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM, WEAK WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL HAVE MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IT. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, LEFT OVER BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING BROAD, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
EXPECT TO HAVE PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY MORE FOCUSED FORCING, BUT THAT IS
FAR FROM CLEAR AT THIS POINT. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER INDICATE THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY, IN PROXIMITY TO THE DECAYING BOUNDARY, WHICH
WOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEYOND THAT, THERE
IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING BEYOND NORMAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD, BUT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DEVELOPS AFTER 1600Z AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES SUBSIDE BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0600Z. AROUND 0600Z, MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT FLOW.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS OR BR/FG ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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