981
FXUS61 KILN 071715
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
115 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE ILN CWA HAS BECOME
ROBUST, AS UNCAPPED INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED, AND DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH PEAK DIURNAL TIMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS IN TO NEAR
CLEVELAND OH. CONDITIONS ARE MORE STABLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT, BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY TO THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 (IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ILN CWA).
THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING RECORDED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.65
INCHES. THE GREATER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA,
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE
EXPECTED, AND THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING FOR HAZARDS TODAY HAS
NOT CHANGED -- A RISK OF ISOLATED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES (ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING CELLS) ALONG WITH A
LOW-END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. HE 1630Z
SPC D1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AFTER 02Z, AT WHICH POINT SOME FOG
OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP. HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST,
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE, BUT
THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MOST OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOSTLY WASH OUT BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING IS UNDERWAY. REGARDLESS OF
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR MASS WILL
BE A LITTLE LESS MOIST AND A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE. WITH NO CLEAR
SIGNS OF FORCING, ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED. FOR THE ILN CWA, ANY STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. STILL, COULD PROBABLY NOT ENTIRELY
DISCOUNT THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE -- THOUGH THE
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY EVENING, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED 90S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WITH DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY WITH THIS PATTERN, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
OCCURRING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS, WHICH MAY BRING TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AIRPORTS. THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 23Z, THOUGH THE END TIME FOR
THE CHANCE OF STORMS COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE
STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR, THOUGH A BRIEF MVFR CEILING
IS POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN
THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME, AND THEN TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY,
IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page