708
FXUS61 KILN 080144
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
944 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILN
FA, THE FRONT CONTINUES TO CRAWL TO THE ESE ACROSS THE AREA,
ALIGNING ITSELF VERY CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR AS OF LATE THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY MEAGER,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE ABUNDANT OF LL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF IT AND THE MAINTENANCE OF SOME LOW-END ELEVATED INSTBY. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH WHERE POPS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTATION
FOR ISO ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A SIGNAL
AMONGST SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z, SO CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED
IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND,
WITH THE BEST SIGNAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN EC IN AND WC OH.
TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW DENSE THIS FOG MAY BE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE STRATUS COVERAGE ITSELF, BUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS THOSE THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY, BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN WC OH TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER
SCIOTO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MOST OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOSTLY WASH OUT BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING IS UNDERWAY. REGARDLESS OF
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR MASS WILL
BE A LITTLE LESS MOIST AND A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE. WITH NO CLEAR
SIGNS OF FORCING, ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED. FOR THE ILN CWA, ANY STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. STILL, COULD PROBABLY NOT ENTIRELY
DISCOUNT THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE -- THOUGH THE
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY EVENING, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED 90S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WITH DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY WITH THIS PATTERN, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
OCCURRING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE LOCAL
TERMINALS, THE FRONT ITSELF STILL REMAINS JUST N OF EVERY LOCAL SITE
EXCEPT KDAY. THEREFORE, A FEW SPOTTY SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SRN SITES. HAVE ADDED A PROB30
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHRA TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT (PERHAPS MIGRATING
MORE E OF KILN AND S OF KCMH/KLCK PAST 09Z), SO SUPPOSE THAT IT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THESE SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS GOING TO BE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS, WHICH
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT FOR NRN SITES. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BEYOND 06Z, WITH SOME LOW STRATUS AND BR/FG
FAVORED TO DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW LOW THE
VSBYS WILL GO WITH THE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK, BUT DO THINK THAT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FASHION,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SOME LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z, WITH THE STRATUS
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH A FEW/SCT VFR CU FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A VERY SPOTTY SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
LACK OF COVERAGE PRECLUDED INCLUSION OF EVEN A PROB30 AT THIS
JUNCTURE. LIGHT/VRB/CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL GO MORE OUT OF
THE WNW AT 6-8KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KC/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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