274
FXUS61 KILN 080538
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, SOME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A BROAD COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
PARKED THROUGH THE DAYTIME. SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION PRIOR TO
SUNRISE ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND CALM WINDS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG DEVELOP IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71.
FOR TODAY, DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING. THUS, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY CELL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY LOCATION, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SOUTH OF I-71
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW TONIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING. WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES START INCREASING LATE. FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR
70.
ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEVELOP INTO THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DUE TO AN HIGH PWATS BEING DRAWN IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERLAPPING FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MINOR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL DRAG A BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
OUT AHEAD OF THAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BY FRIDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS
INCREASING SPREAD IN TIMING BUT OVERALL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD LIFTING THE PRIMARY ENERGY INTO ONTARIO WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS (AROUND 60
PERCENT) FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY,
BUT THE BROAD BRUSH NBM POPS SHOW LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
DAYS REFLECTING THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY DAY
BUT AT THIS POINT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER EACH DAY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT EVEN AFTER THAT READINGS
WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS TRICKY GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THE TAF SITES ARE
IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CALM WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING SCATTERED STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION. THE TREND TOWARD MVFR
AND IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE, BUT THE
SEVERITY WILL LIKELY VARY BY LOCATION. AFTER 1200Z, IMPROVEMENTS
BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE
DIURNAL MIXING STARTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 1200Z. AFTER 1200Z, LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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