273
FXUS61 KILN 081749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A FOCUS MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT
CONTINUED ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 80S TODAY AND THEN DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAVE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
EXPECT MORE COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE
NBM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, GENERALLY SOME
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 71, WEDNESDAY EVENING TO MATCH
HIGHER NBM QPF VALUES AND WHERE THERE ARE CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNALS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, AND RECENT RAINFALL, EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FOG POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
FLOW AND 0-6KM SHEAR REMAIN WEAK, SO NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH A COLLAPSING UPDRAFT WITH STRONG WINDS HERE AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SLOWER MOVING STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR. THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER FOR FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH A
SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/SHARPNESS
OF THE TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PROGRESSION, WITH NBM
SOLUTION STILL FAVORING PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY,
WITH A SLIGHTLY EASTERN FOCUS ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION FAVORING GREATER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, SO
TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BECOMING
MORE SHALLOW/MUTED AT LEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SW CONUS ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING HEIGHTS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. LINGERING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR KILN THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CHANCE AND ISOLATED POTENTIAL DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CU AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MID CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO NOT GO AS LOW AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD POTENTIAL, BUT STILL INDICATED SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO SHOWER MENTION AS BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF LOCATION.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page