317
FXUS61 KILN 091356
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
LOCATION OF CURRENT PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND TREND. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TODAY, PWATS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-70 GETTING INTO THE BEST MOISTURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD HELP SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY AROUND 3PM. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTHEAST OF I-71 WHICH IS WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST SO ONLY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. QUICKER
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT TO VERY ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE WANING, ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL REMAIN. CONSIDERING THE CALM WINDS AND
SATURATION IN THE TROUGH AXIS, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
ON THURSDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVER THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN PLACE. STORM MOTIONS COULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON
THURSDAY, BUT LOWER PWATS SHOULD HOPEFULLY MITIGATE THE FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS A BIT
MORE DCAPE AND AN ISOLATED DOWNDRAFT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK ZONAL FLOW TO START THE PERIOD WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN A BIT
AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITE HAVE DECREASED. SO
SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY MOVING IN
LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. AND THEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY STARTING IN EASTERN AREAS BUT ALSO POSSIBLY
ALREADY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTS OUT, HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD. ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WEAK WESTERLIES OVER
THE REGION AND SO THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT
EXCESSIVELY SO, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME UPPER AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING BY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS EXISTS
THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FADE AWAY AFTER 0000Z THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT, CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MODERATELY LIKELY AS CONDITIONS MAY END
UP BEING FAVORABLE FOR BR/FG IF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN THIN.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 1300Z. FOR TODAY, WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE FADING OFF ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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