083
FXUS61 KILN 091802
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. WHILE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE RAINFALL SO FAR
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, ONCE
AGAIN MORE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BETTER FOCUS
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LATE THIS WEEK BACKS AND STRENGTHENS AS
AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEEPER TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT IT WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL SPREAD IS OBSERVED REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
RIDGE AND THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THOUGH SATURDAY. READINGS
LOOK TO ONLY DIP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY - WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCVG AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITE
AND THEREFORE HANDLED WITH A VCTS. OTHERWISE, HANDLED ANY
PRECIPITATION MENTION AT THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES WITH VCSH OR SHRA.
CANNOT RULE OUT THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THE OTHER AREA TAF
SITES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
HOWEVER SOME LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KCVG AND KLUK LATE IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LIMIT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES, HOWEVER
HAVE IFR VSBYS AT KILN AND KLUK. HAVE AN ADDITIONAL MENTION IN OF
VCSH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
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