073
FXUS61 KILN 092335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
735 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE LARGER
FLOW, DRAGGING A WEAK/ LOOSELY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO STALL OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED INTO
THIS EVENING, BASED ON RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY. PWATS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE AROUND 120% OF NORMAL, SO THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. WE'VE ALREADY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND- DON'T DROWN! ADDITIONALLY, ALL
STORMS POSE A LIGHTNING THREAT!
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS, WINDS GO CALM TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL, CALM WINDS, AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY DENSE SPOTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, ONCE
AGAIN MORE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BETTER FOCUS
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LATE THIS WEEK BACKS AND STRENGTHENS AS
AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEEPER TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT IT WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL SPREAD IS OBSERVED REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
RIDGE AND THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THOUGH SATURDAY. READINGS
LOOK TO ONLY DIP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY - WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EPISODIC THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD
TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS GO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT. THIS, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
RAINFALL, WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS AT ALL SITES. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, CIGS WILL FALL THANKS TO SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE DROPPED MOST SITES DOWN TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME IFR CONDITIONS.
FOG DISSIPATES THURSDAY MORNING AND CIGS SLOWLY LIFT. ANOTHER DAY OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING EPISODIC THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE TABLE. FOR NOW,
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR -SHRA, THOUGH THE INTRODUCTION OF -TSRA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. WINDS ON THURS REMAIN LIGHT, OUT
OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK... EPISODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CA
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