566
FXUS61 KILN 100544
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FEW SHRA CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE PREDAWN
HOURS. ALONGSIDE THE SHRA, SOME SCT CU REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING, DO EXPECT
THAT SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY STRETCHING FROM
EC/SE IN THROUGH FAR N KY AND SW OH AS WELL AS THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN JUST HOW DENSE THIS FOG
MAY BECOME, OWING TO PERSISTENCE OF SOME CU IN THE AREA. BUT DO THINK
THAT AN SPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED, AT LEAST FOR A SMALL AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF PAST 12Z, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU WILL
SPROUT AGAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ISO/SPOTTY TODAY THAN WAS
THE CASE WEDNESDAY, OWING TO A LACK OF NOTABLE FORCING/LIFT OR ANY LL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY CU
FIELD BY MIDDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHRA POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
NEAR/E OF I-71 INTO CENTRALSOUTH-CENTRAL OH. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW/ERRATIC, WHICH MAY ACT TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO A NON-ZERO HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. THIS BEING SAID, WITH COVERAGE AND OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY STAYING SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WILL MENTION JUST HERE
FOR AWARENESS PURPOSES. A FAVORABLE DCAPE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP,
SUGGESTING AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE, IF
IT OCCURS AT ALL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S, VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS IN GENERAL PAST MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
TONIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREA RIVER VALLEYS.
MORE OF THE SAME IS ON TAP FRIDAY WITH ISO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED. THE BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE N OF THE ILN
FA BY THE EVENING AS A S/W PIVOTS ACROSS THE NRN OH VLY AND SRN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S AMIDST SEASONABLE HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH A MUCH LARGER/DEEPER TROUGH
DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPORTS HOT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THE FORCING WITH
THE TROUGH ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, SO WHILE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PEAK HEATING
PERIOD, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBLE
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR (CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY). THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM AND SOME MOISTURE REMAINS, SO SOME LOW
POP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TO WRAP UP THE LONG TERM, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND GULF COAST, WITH ANOTHER SET OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE
AND BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHRA ARE LINGERING ABOUT THE AREA, THE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH AS TO NOT INCLUDE A PROB30 AT
THE SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN FACT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS,
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LL MOISTURE DUE TO AFTERNOON RAINFALL (AND IN
AREA RIVER VALLEYS WHERE ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE REMAINS), WILL PROMOTE
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT BY/PAST 09Z THROUGH 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED PERIODS OF
REDUCED VSBYS AT ALL SITES, WITH SW SITES OF KCVG/KLUK/KILN MOST
LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AT KLUK.
BR/FG DISSIPATES AFTER 12Z AND NEAR-SFC MOISTURE SLOWLY MIXES OUT
WITH SOME FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING BY 15Z. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
AREA-WIDE BY 13Z. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
EPISODIC THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISO IN
NATURE. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR SHRA, THOUGH THE
INTRODUCTION OF TSRA MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. LIGHT/VRB/CALM
WINDS THROUGH 12Z WILL GO OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 5KTS DURING THE
DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK... DAILY EPISODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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