320
FXUS61 KILN 101035
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING, DO EXPECT THAT SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY STRETCHING FROM EC/SE IN
THROUGH FAR N KY AND SW OH AS WELL AS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. THERE
REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN JUST HOW DENSE/WIDESPREAD THIS FOG MAY
BECOME, OWING TO PERSISTENCE OF SOME CU IN THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS,
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 830 AM AS SOME OBSERVATION SITES AND
CAMERAS SHOW THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU WILL SPROUT
AGAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ISO/SPOTTY TODAY THAN WAS
THE CASE WEDNESDAY, OWING TO A LACK OF NOTABLE FORCING/LIFT OR ANY LL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY CU
FIELD BY MIDDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHRA LIKELY, PARTICULARLY NEAR/E
OF I-71 AND NEAR I-70 INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OH. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW/ERRATIC, WHICH MAY ACT TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO A NON-ZERO
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN A GENERAL
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MONTGOMERY/MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH
HARDIN/UNION/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BEING
SAID, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, SPOTTY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE. COVERAGE AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL STAY
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO WILL MENTION JUST HERE FOR AWARENESS PURPOSES.
A FAVORABLE DCAPE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP, SUGGESTING AT
LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S, VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS IN GENERAL PAST MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
TONIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREA RIVER VALLEYS.
MORE OF THE SAME IS ON TAP FRIDAY WITH ISO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED. THE BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE N OF THE ILN
FA BY THE EVENING AS A S/W PIVOTS ACROSS THE NRN OH VLY AND SRN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S AMIDST SEASONABLE HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH A MUCH LARGER/DEEPER TROUGH
DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPORTS HOT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THE FORCING WITH
THE TROUGH ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, SO WHILE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PEAK HEATING
PERIOD, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBLE
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR (CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY). THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM AND SOME MOISTURE REMAINS, SO SOME LOW
POP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TO WRAP UP THE LONG TERM, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND GULF COAST, WITH ANOTHER SET OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE
AND BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE ISO SHRA FROM EARLIER IN THE MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, WITH
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF LIFR/VLIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EC IN THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
OH, INCLUDING AT KLUK/KILN. THESE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE AT KLUK/KILN WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT FEW/SCT CU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 15Z. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
AREA-WIDE BY 13Z. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
EPISODIC THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISO IN
NATURE. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR SHRA, THOUGH THE
INTRODUCTION OF TSRA MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT, PARTICULARLY AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. LIGHT/VRB/CALM WINDS EARLY WILL GO OUT OF THE WNW
AROUND 5KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
MORE BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT VULNERABLE
SITES OF KLUK/KILN AS SHRA AND CLOUDS WANE IN COVERAGE PAST SUNSET.
OUTLOOK... DAILY EPISODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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