315
FXUS61 KILN 102332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN TAPER OFF,
HOWEVER THERE IS A DECAYING SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THAT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER EXPECT LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH HIGHS INT HE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GET ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER/DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS HOT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WEST. WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
THE REGION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE AREA PROVIDING AN ENHANCED ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR (CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY). THIS AREA WOULD ALSO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST, AND
HEIGHTS RISE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A BIT OF A LULL OR LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE REMAINS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY - SO
LOW POP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT DROP OFF SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S MONDAY AND THEN WARM TO AROUND 90 TUESDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EVENTUALLY GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS FAVORS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT MID-WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROF THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RADAR STILL SHOWS SOME ISOLATED RETURNS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO, THOUGH NO TAF SITS ARE IMPACTED AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN THE VERY
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS DIE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF I-70. THIS SUGGESTS THAT KLCK, KILN, KLUK
HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED, SO HAVE INCLUDED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THOSE SITES (MOSTLY
MVFR, BUT DID TAKE LUK DOWN TO IFR). SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOG MAY
PRESENT AS SOME LOW STRATUS, SO CIGS MAY BRIEFLY COME DOWN AS WELL,
THOUGH DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY,
FOR NOW, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT KCMH SINCE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND EFFECTS TEND TO MITIGATE FOG THERE- WILL AMD AS NEEDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH DIURNAL CU; AS SUCH, MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO WED/THUR,
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW, INCLUDED A MENTION OF -SHRA AT SITES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER OF A AFTERNOON POP-UP, THOUGH IT IS A
POSSIBILITY AT ALL SITES AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
OUTLOOK... DAILY EPISODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CA
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