701
FXUS61 KILN 111031
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. A DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILL INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FG, PARTICULARLY IN SE
PARTS OF THE ILN FA (THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY). SOME PATCHY OVERLAND
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHRA CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN TWO PRIMARY AREAS... WEST-CENTRAL
OH AND NEAR/S OF I-71 TOWARD THE OH RVR), THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS IS OWING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS, WHICH SHOULD
MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE IN THE DAY (OPPOSED TO LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON). ADDITIONALLY, THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MAY CLIP FAR
NW PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA (MERCER TO HARDIN COUNTIES) EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD STAY TO THE N OF THE LOCAL AREA. CERTAINLY ANY SLOW-MOVING
ACTIVITY WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE/SCOPE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
ANOTHER DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WARM/MUGGY WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BRING WITH IT TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS:
1) SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST A
VERY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTBY ON
THE ORDER OF SBCAPE >3000 J/KG. THE APPROACH OF A BROAD MIDLEVEL
TROF WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE SOME SCT
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF I-71 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MEAGER, SO STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. THIS BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER AND LL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT (WITH DCAPE >1000 J/KG) TO SUGGEST THAT
GUSTY TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW TENDENCIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
WELL INTO THE EVENING (AND OVERNIGHT) WITH PLENTY OF INSTBY TO WORK
WITH AND SOME SUBTLY-INCREASING FORCING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
S/W. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING) IN THE HWO GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2) WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
MID AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AREAS IMPACTED BY STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORMS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
JUNCTURE. BUT CERTAINLY THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITHOUT A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER THE REGION MAY PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE AREA PROVIDING AN ENHANCED ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR (CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY). THIS AREA WOULD ALSO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PURGE THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POPS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS DESPITE THE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE
WEST, AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GEFS IS A BIT
FASTER (COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENS) WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE DUE
TO LESS RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EVENTUALLY, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL SOME
SPOTTY/ISO SHRA/TSRA SPROUT ABOUT AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN VERY SPOTTY, BUT MAY FOCUS NEAR/S OF I-71 NEAR
KILN/KCVG/KLUK, SO HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHRA IN THESE AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WELL N OF KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FEW/SCT VFR CU ARE EXPECTED PAST 15Z, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT A BIT. SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPILL IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE TO THE E ACROSS THE NW OH VLY.
SOME BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLUK/KILN. SCT TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD/BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK... DAILY EPISODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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