983
FXUS61 KILN 262351
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED, BUT ACTIVITY IS RATHER
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS AN IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THAT IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THIS
CONTINUES INTO NORTHERN OHIO, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT AFFECTS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
ELSEWHERE, FORCING IS WEAK AND SO EXPECT ANY STRONGER CELLS TO BE
QUITE LOCALIZED. ACTIVITY AREA WIDE WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN MCS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. IF THIS HAPPENS, THERE THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
THERE ARE SPORADIC RELIABLE OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE HAVING THE HEAT
INDEX REACH OR EXCEED 100. WILL SEE A FEW MORE LOCATIONS REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON LETTING HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUE AS IS AND EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
MORNING MCS MAY CLIP PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALSO LIKELY LAY OUT AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY BIFURCATING THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AN INCREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE MINIMAL BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
A DAILY MAXIMUM, CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
PRIMARY CONCERN. ONCE AGAIN, ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF AND DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A TAD LOWER. THIS LEADS TO VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100 ONCE AGAIN, EXCEPT IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH ZONAL WNW FLOW ALOFT AND AN ENTRENCHED UPPER HIGH FOUND OVER
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST AND FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BECOMES MORE
NWLY, REMOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT'S BEEN FOUND LATELY. WHILE
NBM FORECAST IS SHOWING NO POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND AN
UPTICK ON WED, I SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SCT/ISOLD
CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY PEAK HEATING MON/TUE.
ON WED NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES DO NOT DIE OUT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A WEAK TROUGH PASSES, NOTED AT H8 MORE THAN
ANYWHERE ELSE. FROM THURS NIGHT ONWARD, A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WED AND WED NIGHT WHEN NW CWA HAS
HIGHS BELOW 90 AND LOWS DROPS TO BELOW 70 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT
WILL THEN BE JUST SHY OF A WEEK. NOTABLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD
BE FOUND FROM THURS ONWARD AS HIGHS DROP TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
AND LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THIS OCCURS AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST VEERING TO NORTHEAST AT H8 AND SFC DURING THIS
TIME. IMO TEMPS ON FRI/SAT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN IS BEING
FORECAST FROM NBM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. THESE WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I-70 LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENTIAL COMPLEX MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
MEANWHILE, SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE AS WE
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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