707
FXUS61 KILN 271026
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
626 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AT MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
OFFER DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WITH AN
ACTIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES AROUND ITS PERIPHERY AFFECTING THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO WEAKENING AND
THIS TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MCS IN A DECAYING STAGE MAY CLIP PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY LAY OUT AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM GENESIS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT TO OBSERVE INCREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
QUITE MINIMAL BUT PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. ILN/S
00Z PWAT WAS 1.97 INCHES. SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A PRIMARY CONCERN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER
90S SOUTH.THE NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HOT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THIS AIRMASS. EVEN AFTER COLLABORATING A SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW
POINT - WE MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
ON GOING CONVECTION EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES) SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH A LACK OF FORCING THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADES WEST MONDAY PLACING THE OHIO
VALLEY IN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. FORCING IS LIMITED
BUT EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WEST EARLY THIS WEEK
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS PLACES THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
SIGNAL CONTINUES THRU MID WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN
THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED -
GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS. ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE WITH MEAN TROF DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING MORE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MAY COMBINE WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS TO RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES DROP WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND WILL LIKELY LAY OUT A BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE
TAF SITES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF STORMS EXPECT
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS WITH
REDUCED VSBYS AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
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