630
FXUS61 KILN 272318
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL
OHIO ARE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. OTHER SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THERE. MOST LIKELY MORE CONCENTRATED
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS 2.07 INCHES, WHICH IS THE
SECOND HIGHEST ALL TIME FOR THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
ARE SUBSTANTIAL. SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD START TO REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE
TRI-STATE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN THE TRI-STATE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN.
REDEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
APPARENT FORCING. THIS WILL FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE AND
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.
WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LESS CONVECTION ON MONDAY, HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY. HREF IS SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR VALUES OF 100 OR ABOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AND THEN
FURTHER EAST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AS WELL AS A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE DAYTON METRO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. GIVEN THIS, HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN INCREASED
THE AREA A BIT FURTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER SRN U.S. WEAKENS OVER OHIO VALLEY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE LOWER GTLKS BEGINS TO MOVE SWD INTO CWA TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED. THE BOUNDARY STALLS IN SRN/SOUTH OF CWA EARLY
THURS, WITH H5 S/W ENERGY TOPPING IT LATE WED/EARLY THU. STORMS WILL
BE LIKELY OVER THE REGION WITH THESE FORCING MECHANISMS FOUND IN A
VERY RECEPTIVE, MOIST AIRMASS. THEY SHOULD BE MOST ACTIVE FROM WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON AND DIE OUT IN THE EVENING. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT COULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE DAY
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH ENDING CLOSER TOWARDS NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A DRY
NE WIND OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
AND AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
SAT. BEHIND THEM, WINDS TURN E AND THEN SE ON SUN. GFS HAS AN UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE EXITING RIDGE, BRINGING PRECIP TO
SW CWA SUN. EUROPEAN DOES NOT HAVE CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND BRINGS A
ZONAL WLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE, KEEPING ANY RAIN THREAT
SOUTH OF CWA.
THE END OF HOT AND MUGGY LOOKS TO BEGIN ON WED WITH SOME MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, FALL TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY, AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS THU-SUN WILL BE IN THE MID
70S NW TO NEAR/LOW 80S SE. LOWS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. ONE EXCEPTION IS A COOLER FRI NIGHT WITH MID 50S
ALONG/N OF I-70 CORRIDOR, NEAR 60 ALONG OHIO RIVER.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE AT KCVG/KLUK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR BR LATER TONIGHT.
AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WILL COVER THIS
WITH A PROB30 -TSRA FOR LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ060>062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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