480
FXUS61 KILN 281029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TO RETROGRADE WEST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY.
THIS KEEPS THE OHIO VALLEY IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PWAT OF 2.00 INCHES WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z ILN SOUNDING. WE REMAIN IN A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS TODAY. BETTER
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
GENERALLY EXPECT LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY THAN THE PAST TWO
DAYS - WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE
AFTN. IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILN/S FA. THEREFORE, HAVE CONTINUED HEAT
ADVISORY THRU 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WARM LOWS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE
SOUTHEAST US. SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSH THE
WESTERLIES A FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED THREAT FOR
THUNDER. ALSO, IN A RELATIVE SENSE - SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACH NEAR 100 NORTH TO AROUND 105
SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE'LL BE ON THE CUSP OF A BROADER PATTERN CHANGE AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM/ COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING NOT ONLY RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. RIGHT NOW,
THE BLEND STILL HOLDS ONTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AND WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND, POSSIBLY, EVEN PRECIPITATION ONSET.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER
POOL OF BULK SHEAR MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
SUGGESTING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. THE BLEND HOLDS ONTO POPS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THURSDAY AND THIS INITIAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE
REGION. COINCIDENT WITH THIS THINKING, PWATS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
160-180% OF NORMAL, SO FLOODING CONCERNS/HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT.
GUIDANCE THEN HINTS AT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS, POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICK IN. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE
ONSET OF CAA AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER.
THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND; MORE IMPORTANTLY, DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/ LOW 50S. WE DRY OUT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT FLOW SOME FOG AND STRATUS HAS
DEVELOP WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS
TIME. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WILL COVER THIS WITH A PROB30
-TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN LIKELY TONIGHT WITH
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ060>062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ050-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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