305
FXUS61 KILN 281327
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE MADE IT INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DROP SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TRI-
STATE FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE ON A WEAKEN TREND THROUGH THE
MORNING. AFTER A LULL, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AFTER 18Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER
FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING OF 1.90 INCHES REMAINS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, CLOSE TO A MAXIMUM. SO, VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WARM LOWS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU THE
SOUTHEAST US. SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSH THE
WESTERLIES A FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED THREAT FOR
THUNDER. ALSO, IN A RELATIVE SENSE - SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACH NEAR 100 NORTH TO AROUND 105
SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE'LL BE ON THE CUSP OF A BROADER PATTERN CHANGE AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM/ COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING NOT ONLY RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. RIGHT NOW,
THE BLEND STILL HOLDS ONTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AND WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND, POSSIBLY, EVEN PRECIPITATION ONSET.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER
POOL OF BULK SHEAR MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
SUGGESTING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. THE BLEND HOLDS ONTO POPS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THURSDAY AND THIS INITIAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OUT OF THE
REGION. COINCIDENT WITH THIS THINKING, PWATS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
160-180% OF NORMAL, SO FLOODING CONCERNS/HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT.
GUIDANCE THEN HINTS AT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS, POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICK IN. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE
ONSET OF CAA AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER.
THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND; MORE IMPORTANTLY, DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/ LOW 50S. WE DRY OUT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CEILINGS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA AT THIS TIME. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY,
EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. WILL COVER THIS WITH
A PROB30 -TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060>062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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