858
FXUS61 KILN 282338
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONVECTION EXITING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD
STABILIZED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER, BUT IT MAY STILL NOT
BE AS FAVORABLE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
AS LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THERE, SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH CONTINUES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THERE
WILL BE A RESERVOIR OF DCAPE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN AFFECTED BY CONVECTION TODAY.
AFTER ACTIVITY WANES, CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE
MIGHT EVEN BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE DAY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BUT THE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER. WEAK BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THERE, BUT MORE THAN
LIKELY THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN BUT THE SIGNAL DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AT THE MOMENT.
WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL HAVE LITTLE HINDRANCE FOR THE HEAT
INDEX TO RISE TO OR ABOVE 100 AREA WIDE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT THE POPS IN
CURRENTLY ARE A LITTLE HIGH AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD BE
DRY, LIKEWISE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS THE DAY THAT TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR, AND NEAR TO LOW 90S SOUTHEAST OF IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AND BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE OHIO, NEAR 70
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STARK DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY EVOLVE THE AREA
WRT PRECIP FOR WED PM/THU. EUROPEAN HAS THE SURFACE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CWA WHILE THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS BROUGHT IN THESE NLY
WINDS AS EARLY AS WED. UPPER DYNAMICS OF WEAK S/W ENERGY WILL CROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURS BUT IT'S PRIMARILY THE EURO THAT HAS IT SPARK
PRECIP ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. POPS DURING THIS TIME
ARE AGAIN TOO HIGH AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THURS COULD BE A
BEAUTIFULLY DRY DAY.
HIGHS FROM THURS ONWARD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, COOLEST
IN WEST CENTRAL OH. LOWS WILL MATCH THE COOLER TREND, BEING IN THE
LOW 60S THURS NIGHT AND THEN MID-UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL RAIN ON THURSDAY, THE FORECAST IS DRY GOING
FORWARD WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KCVG/KLUK AREA SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. MEANWHILE, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO IS MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
WITH THESE, BUT THEY MAY STILL AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND POSSIBLY KDAY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS,
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ060>062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-063>065-074.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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