625
FXUS61 KILN 291724
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION TODAY, WILL KEEP
FOG FORECAST FOCUSED IN AND NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS.
DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
WARM UP... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HOWEVER, HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY OUT FOR SOME WARMER LOCATIONS REACHING
NEAR 100 DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO TREK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES STATES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE A BIT, LEADING TO FOCUSING THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP CONVECTION, WITH PERHAPS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT, SO THIS WILL REMAIN IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING A
CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ON PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, WITH SOME TAKING
A SLOWER TREND/PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAN OTHERS.
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKING LIKELY, WITH PW VALUES AT THE
90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER. WITH THE FROPA/PRECIP FOCUS TIMING ALSO
BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, AS WELL.
PRETTY CONFIDENT THE FAR SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S, BUT
JUST HOW MUCH INTO THE 70S AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL LINGER STILL
UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH BOTH DIURNAL
WANING AND SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, LEAVING JUST A CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT POST FROPA, WITH MID 60S SOUTH.
FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH STRONG CAA IN
ITS WAKE AND A MUCH DIFFERENT AIRMASS WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH LOWER
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING TAKES OVER, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY, INCREASING A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON MON/TUE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN
THE CMH/LCK AREA... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH LACK OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE
HAS SIGNALED FOR LESS FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE LIMITED FOG TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
LUK DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS AT TIMES DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN THE RIVER
VALLEY.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO HAVE
ADDED THIS TO CVG'S TAF AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-074.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...
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