081
FXUS61 KILN 292350
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE REMAINED DRY TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ONE OR TWO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN INDIANA. THE AIR MASS
IS NOTABLY DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RECENT DAYS, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF THIS EVENING, THE HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPIRING AS OF
8PM. AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION TODAY, WILL KEEP
FOG FORECAST FOCUSED IN AND NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS.
DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
WARM UP... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HOWEVER, HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY OUT FOR SOME WARMER LOCATIONS REACHING
NEAR 100 DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO TREK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES STATES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE A BIT, LEADING TO FOCUSING THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP CONVECTION, WITH PERHAPS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT, SO THIS WILL REMAIN IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING A
CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ON PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, WITH SOME TAKING
A SLOWER TREND/PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAN OTHERS.
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKING LIKELY, WITH PW VALUES AT THE
90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER. WITH THE FROPA/PRECIP FOCUS TIMING ALSO
BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, AS WELL.
PRETTY CONFIDENT THE FAR SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S, BUT
JUST HOW MUCH INTO THE 70S AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL LINGER STILL
UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH BOTH DIURNAL
WANING AND SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, LEAVING JUST A CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT POST FROPA, WITH MID 60S SOUTH.
FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD WITH STRONG CAA IN
ITS WAKE AND A MUCH DIFFERENT AIRMASS WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH LOWER
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING TAKES OVER, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY, INCREASING A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON MON/TUE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FOG
WILL BE KEPT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR KLUK, WHICH WILL LIKELY
GO TO IFR OR LIFR LEVELS. SOME BRIEF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KLCK.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z.
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-
056-065.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM.../HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS
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