794
FXUS61 KILN 301044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. WESTERLIES SAG A LITTLE SOUTH TODAY BUT THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. FORCING IS
LIMITED AND IN A RELATIVE SENSE - SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH WEAK SHEAR - IF A STORM
DEVELOPS THERE IS A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS FROM
A STRONGER UPDRAFT.
HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO THE LOWER 90 SOUTH.
MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 103 LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS CONTINUED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PIVOT THRU THE REGION WITH PATTERN
CHANGE TAKING PLACE AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH HREF MEAN SHOWING PWAT
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL EXIST.
LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. A
LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER
80S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND POP DECREASES WITH ITS DEPARTURE. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE, STRONG, DEEP LAYER COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT FALL TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER,
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I70.
THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST (FRIDAY) ARRIVES DRY, (RELATIVELY) COOL, AND
MOSTLY SUNNY AS POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE PROCESSES TAKE OVER AND
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH
THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. A STARK
CHANGE TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND WE'LL REMAIN DRY.
AS WE NEAR THE COMING WORK WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE ILN CWA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT FEATURE,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO MOVE BACK IN. THIS WILL
REINTRODUCE SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES/
DEW POINTS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. EARLY WEEK TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIPITATION IS
REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, DRAGGING A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH IT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL HAS
SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THIS FEATURE, THOUGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXITS TO
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN GRIDS FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG WAS RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KCVG, KDAY, AND
KILN WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY AFTER 13Z.
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE FAVORED LOCATION IS NORTHWEST OF THE TAF
SITES AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
A BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS A FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AFTER 16Z AT THE
30 HOUR KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-
088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-055-056-
065.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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