489
FXUS61 KILN 311656
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES, REMNANT LOW
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE SCOURED AWAY LATE, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR ALL EXCEPT SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A STEADY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOCAL MOISTURE SOURCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY BEGINS WITH NE SURFACE FLOW CENTERED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN CAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOSTLY IN THE
TRI STATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES
OVER, A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION, THOUGH TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE
TROUGH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE RETURN
OF MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW, AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ESPECIALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING A
BIT EACH DAY FROM MON-WED, THOUGH GENERALLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL, BUT INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR ESPECIALLY
WED/THU.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK THROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE JUST A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THE
CINCINNATI TERMINALS... THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE COOLER AIR AND LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THIS
AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE LOWERING
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO AMEND FOR THIS AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LUK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE 2,000 FOOT LEVEL MAY APPROACH 30-35 KNOTS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS A BIT BELOW LLWS
THRESHOLD SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...
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