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FXUS61 KILN 010952
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
552 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ON TUE/WED TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S, VERSUS LOWER 80S THAT ARE BEING FORECAST. FROM
MON THROUGH THURS, HIGH TEMPS STAND TO BE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST BY
2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE.
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE AREA W/S OF
METRO CINCY WHERE THEY STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING. THE
CHANCE (30-40%) POPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND/OR DETERMINISTIC MODELS, AND WOULD BEST BE SERVED BY A
DRY FORECAST. THIS SAME DISCONTINUITY OCCURS IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF
CWA ON THURS WITH A 30% POP.
ZONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH MON BEGINS TO LIGHTEN AND TURN SW AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD
TO MN. THE TROUGH MAKES AN EVER SO SLOW PROGRESSION EWD AND REACHES
THE CWA ON WED. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BUT LINGER OVER OR
JUST SE OF CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LOWER LEVEL SE
FLOW IN CWA SHOULD KEEP A DRY SOURCE REGION IN OUR AREA FOR THE END
OF THE VALID FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE LOCATED MORE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WHICH IS THE
BASIS OF THE ARGUMENT THAT A DRY FORECAST WOULD SERVE THE AREA BEST.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH MID MORNING AND THESE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KLUK/KCVG.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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