039
FXUS61 KILN 020607
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AT
TIMES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NOSE UP INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS WE BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE,
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BROAD AND WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SLOWLY REACHES THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, THOUGH
LINGERS NEAR THE CWA AS IT DIES OUT.
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN ~20% EXIST IN KY AND ALONG/W OF THE IN/OH BORDER
PRIMARILY DURING DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WOULD BE BEST
SERVED BY LEAVING THEM OUT UNTIL THE NEAR TERM IS ABLE TO RESOLVE A
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AND SIMILARLY WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS PRESENT THAT
WOULD PROMOTE THIS LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FORECAST POPS TUE APPEAR TO BE OVERBLOWN, EVEN WITH JUST A 30-40%
CHANCE IN THE SW 1/2 OF CWA, MORESO ON WED WHERE IT RANGES FROM 30%
IN THE NW TO 50% IN THE SE. THERE JUST ISN'T ANY STRONG INDICATOR
THAT WARRANTS PUTTING PRECIP IN A FORECAST THAT LOOKS TO BE
INHERENTLY DRY. AM NOT SEEING A REASON TO HAVE RAIN MENTIONED DURING
THE DAY THURS, NOR A CLEAR PATTERN TO SUGGEST FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS
WOULD BE ANY DIFFERENT. AN ISOLD OR LOW CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPPING
IN ANY OF THESE AFTERNOON PERIODS SHOULD NOT GET OVERBLOWN WITH A
RAIN MENTION ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S THROUGH THURS WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 80S
FRI-SAT. LOWS NEAR 60 ON MON MORNING RISE TO THE MID 60S WED/THU
MORNINGS AND THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 60S FRI/SAT MORNINGS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, EXPECT
MAINLY JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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