274
FXUS61 KILN 180550
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP
WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE LATE IN THE WORKWEEK ONCE
AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH A SIGNAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER PUSH OF MILD AND DRY
AIR ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NE IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING TO THE SW THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY A FEW CU IN THE W/SW WHERE THE BETTER LL MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL OH TO THE MID 60S IN THE TRI-STATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
TAP. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL OH TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE TRI-STATE INTO EC IN.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY APPROACH THE FAR WRN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO EC/SE IN AS
THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY BEFORE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT UNTIL WE GET TO THAT POINT, TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL OH AND
RURAL/SHELTERED SPOTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY TO UPPER 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE AMIDST MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND IN AREA RIVER
VALLEYS.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE W BEFORE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MORE HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO BETTER INSTBY
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORCING AND SOURCE FOR ASCENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER. SO DESPITE A
MORE CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT TSRA, THE LACK OF
BETTER LIFT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LOCALLY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
SUDDEN INCREASE IN PWS AND INSTBY, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY PERSISTENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW-END POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCALES NEAR/W OF I-71 INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ISN'T QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE WEAKER
FORCING. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED TREND OF LOWER POPS IN THE GRIDS AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS H5 TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD
AND ABSORBING HURRICANE ERIN, CARRYING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SUBTLE
RETROGRADE OF THE TROUGHING FEATURE ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, ALONG WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
WEAK SIGNAL FOR PCPN.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINING THEIR NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER, A ROBUST, LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN A SURGE OF SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A QUIET TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. A FEW/SCT
CU WILL LINGER ABOUT W/SW PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, IMPACTING MAINLY KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN WITH SOME BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CLOUDS FROM TIME-TO-TIME. A CLEARING TREND SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LL MOISTURE MIXES OUT, WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SOME RIVER VALLEY BR/FG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT WITH
SUSTAINED LIGHT NE FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN, CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LOW.
LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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