645
FXUS61 KILN 181407
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP
WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVE LATE IN THE WORKWEEK ONCE
AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH A SIGNAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER PUSH OF MILD AND DRY
AIR ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL KY THRU IL INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT A BAND OF
STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO. THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH SLOWLY
ESE AND ERODE WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HAVE UPDATED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NE
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING TO THE SW THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A FEW CU IN THE W/SW WHERE THE BETTER
LL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL OH TO THE MID 60S IN THE TRI-STATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
TAP. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL OH TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE TRI-STATE INTO EC IN.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY APPROACH THE FAR WRN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO EC/SE IN AS
THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY BEFORE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT UNTIL WE GET TO THAT POINT, TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL OH AND
RURAL/SHELTERED SPOTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY TO UPPER 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE AMIDST MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND IN AREA RIVER
VALLEYS.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE W BEFORE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MORE HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO BETTER INSTBY
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORCING AND SOURCE FOR ASCENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER. SO DESPITE A
MORE CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SCT TSRA, THE LACK OF
BETTER LIFT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LOCALLY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
SUDDEN INCREASE IN PWS AND INSTBY, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY PERSISTENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW-END POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCALES NEAR/W OF I-71 INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ISN'T QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE WEAKER
FORCING. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED TREND OF LOWER POPS IN THE GRIDS AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS H5 TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD
AND ABSORBING HURRICANE ERIN, CARRYING THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SUBTLE
RETROGRADE OF THE TROUGHING FEATURE ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, ALONG WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWER. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
WEAK SIGNAL FOR PCPN.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINING THEIR NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER, A ROBUST, LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN A SURGE OF SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MAY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A QUIET TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. SOME
PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS WILL LINGER ABOUT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, IMPACTING THE LOCAL SITES WITH SOME BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CIGS FROM TIME-TO-TIME. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
KCMH/KLCK. A CLEARING TREND SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT, WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SOME RIVER VALLEY BR/FG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY AT KLUK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
GOING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SOUTHERLY PAST DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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