826
FXUS61 KILN 190956
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
556 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME AS
DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
RAPID WEAKENING TREND OF TSRA APPROACHING THE WRN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING AS THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF SUCH ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY DAYBREAK BEFORE REBOUNDING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AMIDST AMPLE SUNSHINE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON, LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
FOR INSTBY TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE W, WITH STILL QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR LINGERING SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN NE KY AND THE
LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL NUDGE INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S NEAR/W OF I-71 BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS INFLUX OF RICHER LL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EC IN AND WC OH INTO THE TRI-STATE AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY, WITH
SBCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG IN THE NW THIRD OF THE ILN FA BY 21Z.
ALTHOUGH THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LL CONVERGENCE
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT (SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE ASCENT/LIFT), THE
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WRN THIRD OF THE ILN FA BETWEEN 18Z-21Z BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING
TO THE ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS BEING SAID, THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA EVEN LATE IN THE
DAY, SO SOME WEAKENING/DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT LATER INTO THE EVENING.
WITH THE SUDDEN PUSH OF PWS ABOVE 1.75" FROM THE W, THE GREATEST
CONCERN WITH ANY ACTIVITY TODAY IS GOING TO BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH, SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
RIPE LL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT (HIGHER DCAPE) BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY TO VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED
FLOODING, BUT DO THINK THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HAZARDS IS
STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. IF THIS IS TO MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD LIKELY
BE MAXIMIZED NEAR/W OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z. BUT EVEN
SO, THE COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES AND ONLY MEAGER FORCING/LIFT.
THE OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST TODAY WILL BE HOTTER TEMPS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY, WHICH WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S IN WC OH TO THE
LOWER TO ISO MID 90S NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR. WHERE TEMPS DO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S, DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AS TO NOT CONTRIBUTE TO A
HEAT INDEX MUCH ABOVE THE AIR TEMP.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY LL FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
EXPANDING STRATUS FROM THE N WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S N OF THE OH RVR TO
THE LOWER 70S S OF THE OH RVR WHERE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE
LOWER TO RETURN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AMIDST PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT SOME EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME N OF THE OH RVR, SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
SCENARIO WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 70S NEAR/N OF
I-70 WHILE THEY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S S OF THE OH RVR WHERE SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST SETTLING IN. SHORTWAVE H5 TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROPAGATION, HELPING TO CARRY HURRICANE
ERIN JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, TRENDING BELOW NORMALS
BY A FEW DEGREES. AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AS WELL, WITH
DEWPOINTS TRENDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY, TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NOTABLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE ILN FA COME SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR SOME OF OUR CENTRAL OH
COUNTIES. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS A DRY FORECAST
WITH THIS AIR MASS CHANGE.
THIS H5 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GET REINFORCED WITH PVA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR
INTACT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AROUND 5
KTS. FLOW VEERS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
VFR CU WILL DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF BEGINS TO SPILL IN FROM THE W.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA PAST 18Z, IMPACTING
MAINLY KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN THROUGH 00Z BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER INTO THE EVENING FOR KCMH/KLCK. HAVE
HANDLED THIS WITH PROB30S ACROSS THE BOARD. OF COURSE, ABRUPT CHANGES
IN VSBYS, AS WELL AS WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION, ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE SHRA/TSRA. BUT THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS
NEEDED.
A STRATUS SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND FROM N TO S BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR, CIGS
PROGRESSIVELY FROM N TO S TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE CIGS WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO SCATTER OUT/LIFT THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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