889
FXUS61 KILN 191713
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUILDING INSTABILITY OVERLAPS WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET GOING UNTIL AFTER 3PM SINCE
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS SEEN ON
SPC MESO ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PARAMETERS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH
ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING A THREAT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM ACTIVITY DROPS OFF TONIGHT AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND LOW CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER, DRIER, AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS THAN
WHEN COMPARED WITH TODAY (TUESDAY). NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LIMITS HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AROUND THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LINGER. DEW
POINTS SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 60S BY THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN AXIS OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A BIT OF
A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE, WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. A COOLER AND
DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FROPA OCCURS TONIGHT AND WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR
AND REMAIN LOW INTO AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY
SCATTER AND LIFT TOWARDS VFR DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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