894
FXUS61 KILN 192350
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUILDING INSTABILITY OVERLAPS WITH FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET GOING UNTIL AFTER 3PM SINCE
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS SEEN ON
SPC MESO ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PARAMETERS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH
ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING A THREAT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM ACTIVITY DROPS OFF TONIGHT AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND LOW CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER, DRIER, AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS THAN
WHEN COMPARED WITH TODAY (TUESDAY). NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LIMITS HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AROUND THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LINGER. DEW
POINTS SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 60S BY THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AXIS OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A BIT OF
A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE, WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. A COOLER AND
DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLEARING OF LOWER CU THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN TOPPED BY AN AS DECK
12-15KFT. THIS MID DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS IFR CLOUDS WORK
IN ON NRLY COLD ADVECTION, GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z, LIFTING TO
THE MVFR/VFR CUTOFF OF 3KFT AT DAY AND ILN. REMAINING TAF SITES WERE
OPTIMISTICALLY SCATTERED OUT TOWARDS 18Z AT CMH/LCK/CVG/LUK, THOUGH
MVFR CLOUDS WERE INTRODUCED BACK AT CVG/LUK TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED VFR SHOWER MAY HIT CMH THROUGH 01Z, REMAINING NORTH OF
LCK DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN NRLY AND HIT A MINIMUM UNDER
5KT WITH LOWEST CIGS FOUND FROM 07Z THROUGH 13Z. WINDS PICK BACK UP
TO 8-12KT TOMORROW MORNING, REMAINING AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...FRANKS
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