486
FXUS61 KILN 200347
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1147 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MORE OF THE
SAME IS ON TAP THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF WARMUP EVOLVING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW ISO SHRA, WITH A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER, WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF
TO THE E OF THE ILN FA EARLY THIS MORNING, YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE BY DAYBREAK. IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVITY, NORTHERLY LL FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, HELPING SOME LOW STRATUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND BEYOND, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE N THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD, EXPANSIVE STRATUS WILL BE /VERY/ SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR/N OF THE OH RVR, AS NEGATIVE H8
TEMP ANOMALIES SETTLE INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH TO
AROUND 80 D.EGREES NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR WHERE SOME LATE- DAY PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND A BIT MORE. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
A N WIND AT ABOUT 10KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
THERE MAY BE AN ISO SHRA IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RICHER LL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO COMPLETELY
SCOUR OUT. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISO SHRA
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WC INTO CENTRAL OH AS THE STRATUS BECOMES A
BIT MORE STRATOCU. SOME VERY WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY ALLOW
FOR A VERY LOW-END PCPN CHANCE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FCST. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISO SHRA MAY PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF I-70) INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT ONCE
AGAIN MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AMIDST
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC SKIES. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCALES NEAR/N OF THE OH RVR BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME LOWER/MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR WHERE
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE REGION PAINTS THE PICTURE OF A
CLOUDY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT COOLER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THE CHANCE FOR ISO SPRINKLES WILL PERSIST ON-AND-OFF THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PLUME OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 925-800MB. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DENSER CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS
START TO WARM ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MIX
OUT, ALLOWING FOR MORE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. INCREASED INSOLATION ON
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 80S.
SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY WEATHER WISE, BUT A LONGWAVE H5
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION,
IMPACTING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ISN'T
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY QPF FOOTPRINT, THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHAT
IS CERTAIN HOWEVER IS THE NOTABLE AIR MASS CHANGE, WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR SINKING IN FROM CANADA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK AS PVA
REINFORCES THIS TROUGHING FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULT: HIGH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 70S (PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S) ON
MONDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH THE ISO SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF THE REGION, DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE THAT A FEW
AFTERNOON SPRINKLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS GOING TO BE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
BEYOND, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT MVFR CIGS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FOR NRN
SITES. SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT NEAR KCVG/KLUK/KILN PAST
18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR KDAY/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD AGAIN FROM THE NE PAST 06Z THURSDAY, LEADING
TO CLOUDIER SKIES BY DAYBREAK.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, EARLY
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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