257
FXUS61 KILN 210545
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. ON SUNDAY, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES TO THE REGION
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORKING
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE
HURRICANE ERIN IS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC, ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP
TIGHTEN OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT, PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME 15 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COMING OFF OF THE LAKES FOR WEST
CENTRAL/ CENTRAL OHIO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MORNING CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S IN NORTHERN
KY/CENTRAL OH AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUIET AND DRY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TICK UP SLIGHTLY, REACHING THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER, LOW/MID 80S ALONG I-70. THURSDAY'S CLOUDS WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME PASSING
CUMULUS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND,
WITH A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION, SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY TO START THE
WEEKEND.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
MID-WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS REINFORCING DISTURBANCES ROTATE INTO THE TROUGH. SINCE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE, WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MUCH OF THE REGION IS OVERSPREAD BY A MVFR CLOUD DECK, WITH PATCHES
OF IFR MOVING THROUGH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN AND
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERING OUT BY THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT FOR NOW, ONLY DROPPED KLUK SINCE WINDS
WON'T DROP MUCH BEFORE 5 KNOTS FOR OTHER SITES.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, AROUND 5
KNOTS DURING REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
WINDS DO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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