534
FXUS61 KILN 211019
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
619 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. ON SUNDAY, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES TO THE REGION
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORKING
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE
HURRICANE ERIN IS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC, ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP
TIGHTEN OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT, PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME 15 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COMING OFF OF THE LAKES FOR WEST
CENTRAL/ CENTRAL OHIO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MORNING CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S IN NORTHERN
KY/CENTRAL OH AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUIET AND DRY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TICK UP SLIGHTLY, REACHING THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER, LOW/MID 80S ALONG I-70. THURSDAY'S CLOUDS WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME PASSING
CUMULUS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND,
WITH A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION, SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY TO START THE
WEEKEND.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
MID-WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS REINFORCING DISTURBANCES ROTATE INTO THE TROUGH. SINCE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE, WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OVERSPREAD BY A MVFR CLOUD DECK, WITH
PATCHY IFR MOVING THROUGH. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE MORNING
HOURS PROGRESS, BECOMING A BKN VFR DECK BY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, AROUND 10 KNOTS A STRONGER
AFTERNOON GUST POSSIBLE. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT CMH AND LCK,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.
AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY.
THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH HAVE
HELD OFF INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES, AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page