758  
FXUS61 KILN 230528  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SEASONAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT  
BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER AIR, RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE OUR FINAL DAY OF SEASONAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR A  
LITTLE WHILE AS WE'LL BE ON THE CUSP OF A BROADER PATTERN CHANGE. AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH CANADA TOWARD THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND ITS COLD FRONT. WE  
NEVER DO GET TRUE RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND  
THE GULF COAST MOISTURE NEVER QUITE GETS BACK UP INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY. AS SUCH, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE  
EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE OHIO  
RIVER/ LOW TO MID 80S ALONG I-70.  
 
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A  
WEAK WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY LIFT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE  
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY NEAR  
NORTHERN/EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY EVENING  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNALS POINT TO A RELATIVELY DRY FROPA  
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORCED OUT AHEAD OF IT. A WAVE OF  
CAA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND EAST CENTRAL IN/ WEST CENTRAL  
OH WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S (ALONG WITH DEW POINTS INTO  
THE 50S).  
 
BY SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER IN EARNEST AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS I-70  
CORRIDOR WHERE CAA PROCESSES HAVE BEEN IN PLACE LONGER. HIGHS REACH  
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH, LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. CAA CU LINGER,  
THOUGH WE SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY  
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THE HIGH, VERY LOW ENVIRONMENTAL  
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL NIGHTTIME  
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE DAY  
UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... THOUGH DAILY AVERAGES ARE LIKELY TO  
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HITTING  
OVERLAND FOG PRETTY HARD IN SPOTS, THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD. HAVE  
HANDLED THIS BY INCLUDING TEMPO MVFR FOR KDAY, KILN, AND TEMPO IFR  
FOR LUK (LUK MAY END UP BEING MORE PROBLEMATIC, BUT WILL AMD AS  
NEEDED). CHOSE TO NOT FOG CVG AND CMH LARGELY DUE TO URBAN HEAT  
ISLAND EFFECTS, THOUGH MAY NEED TO AMD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A  
FEW TO SCT CU DECK.  
 
WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO.  
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BLOW OFF MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR A BKN  
VFR DECK. SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN  
THE EVENING, WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CA  
NEAR TERM...CA  
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...CA  
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