974
FXUS61 KILN 231044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT
BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER AIR, RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SATURDAY WILL BE OUR FINAL DAY OF SEASONAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AS WE'LL BE ON THE CUSP OF A BROADER PATTERN CHANGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH CANADA TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND ITS COLD FRONT. WE
NEVER DO GET TRUE RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE GULF COAST MOISTURE NEVER QUITE GETS BACK UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS SUCH, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PATCHY CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE
EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER/ LOW TO MID 80S ALONG I-70.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
WEAK WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY NEAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNALS POINT TO A RELATIVELY DRY FROPA
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORCED OUT AHEAD OF IT. A WAVE OF
CAA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND EAST CENTRAL IN/ WEST CENTRAL
OH WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S (ALONG WITH DEW POINTS INTO
THE 50S).
BY SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER IN EARNEST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE CAA PROCESSES HAVE BEEN IN PLACE LONGER. HIGHS REACH
THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH, LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. CAA CU LINGER,
THOUGH WE SHOULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. UNDER THE HIGH, VERY LOW ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... THOUGH DAILY AVERAGES ARE LIKELY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
KEEPING A BKN VFR DECK AT MOST TAF SITES. VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
SPOTS, THOUGH MOST OF THE VSBY DROPS OCCURRED BEFORE THE STRATUS
DEVELOPED, SO HAVE PULLED FOG FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT LUK, WHERE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING FOG CREEPING UP THE OHIO RIVER.
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST,
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BLOW OFF MOVES INTO THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES THE BKN VFR DECK. SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER
DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE EVENING, WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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