544
FXUS61 KILN 231625
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1225 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A WARM DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WARM AND
FAIRLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOUDY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS. SINCE MOISTURE IS
RELATIVELY LOW, ONLY VERY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 6AM SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON BREEZY
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL START OUT IN
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY
THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE AROUND 80 ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-71 TO THE MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST OF I-71. ALTHOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED.
COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND DRY AIR ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON MONDAY MORNING, A LARGE UPPER LO WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY,
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE HIGH
BUILDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE ILN CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AS LOW AS ABOUT A HALF INCH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOLEST DAY,
IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY -- A DAY WHERE THE WIND FLOW WILL STILL BE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL
STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, LEAVING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT A WEAK TROUGH OR
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA..
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD FILL TO BKN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE ABOVE THE MVFR CATEGORY. FOR
TONIGHT, THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND VISIBILITIES. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT VISIBILITY DROPOUTS IN THE CALMER AREA
IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. WHILE VISIBILITY
DROPOUTS ARE COMMON IN TROUGHS, THE FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT BR/FG FORMATION. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, ADDITION OF MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF FORECASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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