553
FXUS61 KILN 232336
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
736 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEK OFFERING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS OBSERVATIONAL TREND. THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WARM AND
FAIRLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOUDY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS. SINCE MOISTURE IS
RELATIVELY LOW, ONLY VERY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 6AM SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON BREEZY
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL START OUT IN
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY
THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE AROUND 80 ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-71 TO THE MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST OF I-71. ALTHOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED.
COOL AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND DRY AIR ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MONDAY MORNING, A LARGE UPPER LO WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY,
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE HIGH
BUILDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE ILN CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AS LOW AS ABOUT A HALF INCH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOLEST DAY,
IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY -- A DAY WHERE THE WIND FLOW WILL STILL BE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL
STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, LEAVING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT A WEAK TROUGH OR
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA..
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CEILINGS WITH TWO DECKS (ONE AROUND 6000 FEET AND A SECOND
BETWEEN 12,000-15,000 FEET) TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
(MAINLY AT KLUK AND KILN). CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AND
THEREFORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DECK
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOME MORE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL/AR
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/AR
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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